Correspondents in Baghdad February 03
IRAQI voters have punished religious-leaning parties blamed for stoking sectarian violence, and rewarded secular parties seen as capable of holding the nation together, important shifts that will be welcomed in Washington and scorned in Tehran.
The biggest Shia party in Iraq once appeared to hold all the political sway: control of the heartland, the backing of influential clerics and a foot in the Government with ambitions to take full control.
But the days of wide-open horizons could be ending for the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, as the signs began to take shape yesterday with hints of the voter mood from provincial elections.
The broad message - built on Iraqi media projections and post-election interviews - was that the eventual results would punish religious-leaning factions such as the Supreme Council that are blamed for stoking sectarian violence, and reward Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and several secular parties.
The early returns show Mr Maliki could be strengthened in his dealings with parliament before national elections to be held by next year.
His Dawa Party drew strong support in Basra and Baghdad, two of Iraq's largest and most politically important provinces, according to political parties and election officials.
The outcome of the provincial polls will not directly affect Iraq's national policies or its balance between Washington's global power and Iran's regional muscle. But Shia political trends are critically important in Iraq, where the majority Shi'ites hold sway after the fall of Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated regime.
"There is a backlash from Iraqis against sectarian and religious politics," said Mustafa al-Ani, an Iraqi political analyst based in Dubai. "The voting gave us an indication of what will happen in the general election."
Although official results from the weekend's provincial elections are still days away, the early outlines are humbling for the Supreme Council. The group had been considered a linchpin in Iraqi politics as a junior partner in the government that had political control in the Shia south.
But forecasts point to widespread losses for the party across the main Shia provinces. The setbacks could include embarrassing stumbles in the key city of Basra and the spiritual centre of Najaf, hailed as the future capital in the Supreme Council's dreams for an autonomous Shia enclave.
The big election winners appear to be allies of Mr Maliki - a vivid lesson in Iraq's fluid politics.
A year ago, Mr Maliki looked to be sinking. Shia militiamen ruled cities such as Basra and parts of Baghdad, and rockets were hitting the protected Green Zone, which includes the US embassy and Iraq's parliament.
Mr Maliki - with apparent little advance co-ordination with the US - struck back. An offensive broke the militia control in Basra and elsewhere in the south, enhancing his reputation.
And many voters appeared happy to reward his political backers with seats on provincial councils, which carry significant clout with authority over local business contracts, jobs and local security forces.
"Al-Maliki ended the militiamen's reign of terror," said Faisal Hamadi, 58, after voting in Basra. "For this he deserves our vote."
The Supreme Council appeared to stagger under the weight of negative baggage.
It was accused of failing to deliver improvements to public services in the south. And its strong ties to Iran began to offend Iraqis' nationalist sentiments.
Its leader, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, spent decades in Iran during Saddam's rule, and was allowed an office-villa in Tehran. After Saddam's fall, the Supreme Council was Iran's main political conduit into Iraq, although it also developed ties with the US.
Iran now could face limits on its influence in the south, with the Supreme Council forced into a coalition or second-tier status - and confront resistance from a stronger Maliki Government seeking to curb Tehran's inroads.
IRAQI voters have punished religious-leaning parties blamed for stoking sectarian violence, and rewarded secular parties seen as capable of holding the nation together, important shifts that will be welcomed in Washington and scorned in Tehran.
The biggest Shia party in Iraq once appeared to hold all the political sway: control of the heartland, the backing of influential clerics and a foot in the Government with ambitions to take full control.
But the days of wide-open horizons could be ending for the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, as the signs began to take shape yesterday with hints of the voter mood from provincial elections.
The broad message - built on Iraqi media projections and post-election interviews - was that the eventual results would punish religious-leaning factions such as the Supreme Council that are blamed for stoking sectarian violence, and reward Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and several secular parties.
The early returns show Mr Maliki could be strengthened in his dealings with parliament before national elections to be held by next year.
His Dawa Party drew strong support in Basra and Baghdad, two of Iraq's largest and most politically important provinces, according to political parties and election officials.
The outcome of the provincial polls will not directly affect Iraq's national policies or its balance between Washington's global power and Iran's regional muscle. But Shia political trends are critically important in Iraq, where the majority Shi'ites hold sway after the fall of Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated regime.
"There is a backlash from Iraqis against sectarian and religious politics," said Mustafa al-Ani, an Iraqi political analyst based in Dubai. "The voting gave us an indication of what will happen in the general election."
Although official results from the weekend's provincial elections are still days away, the early outlines are humbling for the Supreme Council. The group had been considered a linchpin in Iraqi politics as a junior partner in the government that had political control in the Shia south.
But forecasts point to widespread losses for the party across the main Shia provinces. The setbacks could include embarrassing stumbles in the key city of Basra and the spiritual centre of Najaf, hailed as the future capital in the Supreme Council's dreams for an autonomous Shia enclave.
The big election winners appear to be allies of Mr Maliki - a vivid lesson in Iraq's fluid politics.
A year ago, Mr Maliki looked to be sinking. Shia militiamen ruled cities such as Basra and parts of Baghdad, and rockets were hitting the protected Green Zone, which includes the US embassy and Iraq's parliament.
Mr Maliki - with apparent little advance co-ordination with the US - struck back. An offensive broke the militia control in Basra and elsewhere in the south, enhancing his reputation.
And many voters appeared happy to reward his political backers with seats on provincial councils, which carry significant clout with authority over local business contracts, jobs and local security forces.
"Al-Maliki ended the militiamen's reign of terror," said Faisal Hamadi, 58, after voting in Basra. "For this he deserves our vote."
The Supreme Council appeared to stagger under the weight of negative baggage.
It was accused of failing to deliver improvements to public services in the south. And its strong ties to Iran began to offend Iraqis' nationalist sentiments.
Its leader, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, spent decades in Iran during Saddam's rule, and was allowed an office-villa in Tehran. After Saddam's fall, the Supreme Council was Iran's main political conduit into Iraq, although it also developed ties with the US.
Iran now could face limits on its influence in the south, with the Supreme Council forced into a coalition or second-tier status - and confront resistance from a stronger Maliki Government seeking to curb Tehran's inroads.
Source: The Australian
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