Greg Sheridan, Foreign editor | April 30,
KEVIN Rudd rightly linked Australia's increased troop commitment to Afghanistan with a desire to ensure the viability of the Pakistani state. He identified this as a vital interest for Australia. Like US President Barack Obama, Rudd has appointed a special envoy -- in this case former Defence Department head Ric Smith -- for Afghanistan and Pakistan.
That Rudd questions the viability of the Pakistani state should alert Australians to the perfect storm of trouble in Pakistan today. It is the worst and most dangerous security situation in the world, albeit with strong competition from Iran and with North Korea putting in a serious effort. Don't think I'm being alarmist. Last week, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told Congress that the security situation in Pakistan "poses a mortal threat to the security and safety of our country and the world". She added: "The Pakistani Government is basically abdicating to the Taliban and the extremists ... we cannot underscore the seriousness of the existential threat posed to the state of Pakistan."
Bear in mind that Pakistan is a nation of 170 million people and possesses 75 to 100 nuclear weapons. The Pakistani state is under assault from the Pakistani Taliban, allied with the Afghan Taliban and with al-Qa'ida. It is also under assault from other Islamist and terrorist groups, many of which it originally created or funded (just as it was involved in the founding of the Afghan Taliban) in order to harass India.
In the past few days the Pakistani military has hit back at the Taliban who had taken control of the Swat Valley and moved to within 80km of the capital, Islamabad.
This is not entirely removed from a situation of civil war. The fighting has been pretty indiscriminate and 30,000 Pakistani civilians have fled their homes, many taking shelter in camps that once housed Afghan refugees.
One of the finest analysts of South Asian security, Gopalaswamy Parthasarathy, a former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan, told me this week: "There is a serious concern about whether the Pakistani army is going to defend the state apparatus of Pakistan." More...
Source: The Australian
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