Sunday, December 13, 2009

Iran Update

These events have been reported to World Threats.

Dec. 11 - The head of the SSF, Ahmadi Moghadam, afraid of the spreading revolt threatened the people and said, “time of compromising with the course of hypocrisy (a religious term in this case dealing with people who claim to be Muslims yet do unislamic things) after the election is over and the SSF will not be easy with anybody.

It will act decisively about those who break the law. Some people ruin their past and act in the course of the enemies’ goals while apparently showing that they are supporting revolution and imam. The SSF must act so that hooligans and wrong-doers always fear police forces.”

Reacting to the slogans “death to Khamenei” and “Khamenei is a murderer, his leadership is void” he said, “these days in gatherings and unrests some people offend the sacred issues and values of Islam by their slogans.”

Dec. 11 - Reports from Gohardasht Prison in Karaj say that political prisoner Adel Akbari Jahed, 35, died of blood cancer having been deprived of treatment for the last five years.

Dec. 11 - Mullah Sedighi, the regimes Tehran Friday Imam of Tehran, mourned Khomeini’s torn picture and said while crying, “How they offend Imam’s picture too. Our sacred issues have gone under question.” He also emphasized that Iran would not stop its nuclear activities at any price. He called the international community’s attempts to stop Iran’s nuclear activities “repeating and fussing propaganda of the Western World” and added, “West has imposed lies by media war and has come to the field full force”.

In Uromieh Mullah Hassani, the Friday Imam, shouted, “to tear Imam’s (Khomeini) picture is really being shameless and we the lovers of Velayat (Supreme Leadership) cannot bear it anymore. Are you offending the sacred realm of Imam by tearing his picture? shame on those who play with the system’s prestige.

He threatened, “we have sworn to be loyal to the Supreme Leader. We are ready to die for that and we are armed ready to shoot you one by one in the head. We are ready to sacrifice our lives for the Islamic Republic. We have asked the judiciary to count the organizers of these movements as hypocrites and monarchists and to act decisively against them. He talked about the fact that Khomeini’s picture was torn on Dec. 7 and said that the clerical school in Qom should close on Saturday Dec. 12 and march against this act.

Dec. 12 - At noon approximately 1000 students form Sharif Industrial University in Tehran gathered in protest in front of the university’s dining hall. They boycotted the meal and chanted “death to the dictator” and “until Ahmadinejad is out of power it will be like this every day.

Dec. 12 - at about 3:00 PM 400 to 500 students gathered in front of the engineering building at Tehran University and chanted slogans. People in Enghelab Square wave their hands for the students. At 1530 some pro-Khamenei student raised pictures of Khomeini and Khamenei in front of the Engineering building. Protesting students pulled them down. Some people are gathering in Enghelab Square to support the students, The SSF is dispersing people who have gathered in front of Tehran University to support the students.

Analysis . The students are obviously not giving up and the government is slowly losing control of the people. When this revolution goes to open armed conflict is anybody’s guess right now.

Without more reporting by independent news agencies is is difficult to establish the depth of the revolution across Iran. The amount of press suppression and communications disruption indicate that the revolution is more widespread than the government wants the people or the outside world to know.

At some point this internal struggle will be reflected in external affairs. Perhaps Iran’s suggestion of a swap of 400 kilos of 3.5% enriched uranium for an equivalent amount of 20% enriched uranium on Kish Island has something to do with trying to reduce the external pressure in the face of another round of sanctions. Continued reduction in the supply and increases in the cost of essential goods will not help the regime maintain stability. Another round of sanctions will only increase the discontent.

Notice also how the regime continues to couch everything in religious terms. The people wanting their freedom are called hypocrites. Being labeled a hypocrite can get you the death sentence under Islam. It is somewhat akin to excommunication with extreme prejudice. If the regime has gone beyond using civil terms and is using religious terms, they are not feeling secure at all.

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