Wednesday, January 6, 2010

People’s Republic of China Blocks Additional UN Sanctions on Iran

Reuters is reporting here that the People’s Republic of China will not agree to additional sanctions on Iran.

“This is not the right time or right moment for sanctions because the diplomatic efforts are still going on,” Chinese envoy Zhang Yesui told reporters.”The efforts aimed at diplomatic negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue still need some time and patience,” said Zhang, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the U.N. Security Council this month.

“Trying to bridge differences and finding a settlement through diplomatic efforts — there’s still space for such efforts,” he said through an interpreter.

Analysis. This is nothing more than a fairly blatant attempt to humble the United States.

The PRC is well aware that it is the United States that is leading the effort to sanction Iran over its nuclear programs. We are doing this to forestall an attack on Iran by Israel and the regional (nuclear) war that would follow.

The 5+1 group has laid out a plan that would remove the bulk of Iran’s enriched uranium from the country. Iran has offered to swap part of its enriched uranium for an equivalent amount of nuclear fuel either on Iranian soil or in Turkey.

I believe it is the PRC’s plan to force the 5+1 Group, of which it is a member due to its permanent seat on the Security Council, to accept the Iranian offer thereby trumping the position of the other five countries (even though Russia’s position is flexible).

The PRC has two motives here. The first is commercial. The PRC has made some major investments in Iranian oil and gas projects that would be seriously impeded in a next round of sanctions. These projects include the building of refineries that would remove Iran’s dependence on outside sources for refined products principally gasoline and aviation fuels.

Second this is a relatively cheap way to embarrass the United States and demonstrate our impotence to the rest of the world while increasing the influence of the PRC throughout the world without building carrier strike groups.

The danger is that Israel will perceive that it is being set up for a sacrifice in a big power conflict. The Sunni states of the region may come to the same conclusion. Iraq and Saudi Arabia already have religious and secular problems with Iran. Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt have problems eminating from Syria undoubtably at the behest of Iran.

Sooner or later, and probably sooner, some combination of Israel plus some or all of the GCC states and Egypt will come together to take on Iran before it is truly capable of a nuclear strike with its new solid fuel missiles.

A successful Iranian revolution may overcome this scenario by events. There is equally as great a chance that the mullahocracy will precipitate the regional war to punish the Iranian people for rejecting them and to their way of thinking rejecting God (monafeghin).

This is a dangerous course to take.

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