 The United Nations security council has added the Yemen-based Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to its list of outlawed organisations.
Two of the group's purported leaders, Nasser al-Wahayshi and Qasim al-Raymi, also face new restrictions after the move by the international body's sanctions committee on Tuesday.
Among the sanctions against the two men, who were among 23 fighters who escaped from a jail in Sanaa in 2006, were worldwide freezes on their assets and travel bans.
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula claims to have been behind the failed attempt to blow up a Detriot-bound airliner on Christmas Day as well as other attacks inside Yemen and Saudi Arabia. "Today's actions strengthen international efforts to degrade the capabilities of AQAP," Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the United Nations, said.
The UN committee made its decision the day after the US state department added the al-Qaeda group to it list of proscribed organisations.
"We are determined to eliminate AQAP's ability to execute violent attacks and to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat their networks," Philip Crowley, a state department spokesman, said.
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was formed in January 2009 after the merger of groups in Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
It has since set up bases inside Yemen and has been blamed for the suicide attack on South Korean tourists in March 2009 and an attempt to assassinate the Saudi deputy interior minister across the border in neighbouring Saudi Arabia.
Yemen has bolsetered its troops in three of the country's provinces in an attempt to tackle al-Qaeda and has carried out a number of air raids, which it claims have left dozens of fighters dead.
Al-Raymi was among a number of senior al-Qaeda figures reported to have been killed in a Yemeni attack on two vehicles on Friday.
The government in Sanaa is also battling so-called Houthi rebels in the north and a secessionist movement in the south. Al Jazeera 
 The failure of the six key powers at the UN to levy new sanctions on Iran was hailed on Monday by Iran as a sign of increased rationality in the discussion over its disputed nuclear program. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told reporters in a press conference that the lack of a decision over new sanctions means that Iran can continue working with the international community to allay concerns over the program. Iran is "hopeful and ready to contribute to this rationality so that it will move in the right direction and reach the appropriate results," he said. Mottaki added that "we now observe narrow stripes of rationality" by the foreign powers over the nuclear issue. Iran argues that its nuclear program is aimed at creating a peaceful energy network to serve its growing population. The US and other nations believe the goal of theprogram is to create weapons. The five members of the security council - the US, Britain, France, China and Russia - as well as Germany met on Saturday, but could not agree on levying a fourth round ofsanctions on Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki delivers a speech at a conference on the Persian Gulf, in Teheran, Monday.
The United States and its Western allies have been pushing for the new sanctions. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday warned that Iran will face new sanctions if it doesn't change tune on its nuclear program. But Russia, and especially China, are skeptical of any new sanctions and have been holding out for further talks with Iran. As a result, the six powers have had to tread carefully to preserve a unified position. The US and its allies are concerned at Iran's lack of cooperation with the UN nuclear agency and with its response to a resolution adopted by the agency's board of governors on November 27 which demanded that Teheran immediately stop building a secret uranium enrichment plant in Qom and halt further enrichment efforts. The six nations are also concerned "at Iran's failure to take up the IAEA proposed agreement" to ship most of its uranium - up to 2,600 pounds (1,200 kilograms) - abroad. The uranium would then be enriched to higher levels in Russia, turned into fuel rods in France and returned to power a research reactor in Teheran that produces medical isotopes. The material in the fuel rods cannot be enriched to higher levels, denyingIran the ability to use it to make weapons. JPost
 WASHINGTON: Iran has hidden a large part of its atomic complex in networks of tunnels and bunkers across the country, shielding its infrastructure from military attack in warrens of dense rock while obscuring the scale of its nuclear effort, according to reports yesterday. The effort to hide its capability complicated the West's military and geopolitical calculus and helped shield Tehran from attack, US reports said. The Obama administration is pressing for strong and immediate new sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear program. Analysts told The New York Times that Iran's tunnelling - which Tehran calls a strategy of "passive defence" - was a crucial factor behind the push for non-military solutions to the issue. The report said US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates had discounted the possibility of a military strike against Iran, in the belief it would only slow Tehran's nuclear program by one to three years while driving the project further underground. "It complicates your targeting," Richard L. Russell, a former CIA analyst now at the National Defence University, told the paper yesterday. "We're used to facilities being above ground. Underground, it becomes literally a black hole. You can't be sure what's taking place." US government and private experts told the paper there were hundreds, perhaps thousands, of tunnels in Iran, and that the lines separating their use could be fuzzy. Companies owned by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran, for example, built civilian as well as military tunnels. No one in the West knows how much, or exactly what part of Iran's nuclear program lies hidden in the tunnels. The report said the original hub of the nuclear complex at Isfahan consisted of scores of buildings that were easily observed and easy to attack, but US government analysts said that in recent years Iran had honeycombed the nearby mountains with tunnels. Satellite photos showed six entrances. But the Obama administration has been careful to leave the military option on the table against Iran, and the Pentagon is racing to develop a deadly tunnel weapon. The report said the device - seven metres long and called the Massive Ordnance Penetrator - began as a 2004 recommendation from the US Defence Science Board, a high-level advisory group to the Pentagon. It underwent preliminary testing in 2007, and its first deployment is expected in the northern summer. It will be carried by the B-2 stealth bomber. The report yesterday came as a Pentagon-sponsored study by the Rand Corporation said the Revolutionary Guards had "gained primacy" in Iran since the 2009 presidential election. The Australian
 Reuters is reporting here that the People’s Republic of China will not agree to additional sanctions on Iran. “This is not the right time or right moment for sanctions because the diplomatic efforts are still going on,” Chinese envoy Zhang Yesui told reporters.”The efforts aimed at diplomatic negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue still need some time and patience,” said Zhang, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the U.N. Security Council this month. “Trying to bridge differences and finding a settlement through diplomatic efforts — there’s still space for such efforts,” he said through an interpreter. Analysis. This is nothing more than a fairly blatant attempt to humble the United States.
The PRC is well aware that it is the United States that is leading the effort to sanction Iran over its nuclear programs. We are doing this to forestall an attack on Iran by Israel and the regional (nuclear) war that would follow. The 5+1 group has laid out a plan that would remove the bulk of Iran’s enriched uranium from the country. Iran has offered to swap part of its enriched uranium for an equivalent amount of nuclear fuel either on Iranian soil or in Turkey. I believe it is the PRC’s plan to force the 5+1 Group, of which it is a member due to its permanent seat on the Security Council, to accept the Iranian offer thereby trumping the position of the other five countries (even though Russia’s position is flexible). The PRC has two motives here. The first is commercial. The PRC has made some major investments in Iranian oil and gas projects that would be seriously impeded in a next round of sanctions. These projects include the building of refineries that would remove Iran’s dependence on outside sources for refined products principally gasoline and aviation fuels. Second this is a relatively cheap way to embarrass the United States and demonstrate our impotence to the rest of the world while increasing the influence of the PRC throughout the world without building carrier strike groups. The danger is that Israel will perceive that it is being set up for a sacrifice in a big power conflict. The Sunni states of the region may come to the same conclusion. Iraq and Saudi Arabia already have religious and secular problems with Iran. Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt have problems eminating from Syria undoubtably at the behest of Iran. Sooner or later, and probably sooner, some combination of Israel plus some or all of the GCC states and Egypt will come together to take on Iran before it is truly capable of a nuclear strike with its new solid fuel missiles. A successful Iranian revolution may overcome this scenario by events. There is equally as great a chance that the mullahocracy will precipitate the regional war to punish the Iranian people for rejecting them and to their way of thinking rejecting God (monafeghin).
This is a dangerous course to take. World Threats
 The Obama administration believes domestic unrest and signs of unexpected trouble in Iran's nuclear program make the country's leaders particularly vulnerable to strong and immediate new sanctions. As US President Barack Obama faces pressure to back up his year-end ultimatum for diplomatic progress with Iran, reports yesterday said strong and immediate new sanctions would initiate the latest phase in a strategy to force Iran to comply with UN demands to halt production of nuclear fuel. The sanctions proposal comes as the administration has completed a fresh review of Iran's nuclear progress. Mr Obama's strategists believe Iran's top political and military leaders were distracted in recent months by turmoil in the streets and political infighting, and that their drive to produce nuclear fuel appears to have faltered, officials told The New York Times. The White House wants to focus the new sanctions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps believed to run the nuclear weapons effort. Although repeated rounds of sanctions over many years have not dissuaded Iran from pursuing nuclear technology, a US administration official involved in the Iran policy said the hope was that the current troubles "give us a window to impose the first sanctions that may make the Iranians think the nuclear program isn't worth the price tag", the paper noted. The Obama administration officials said they believed Iran's bomb-development effort was seriously derailed by the exposure three months ago of the country's secret enrichment plant under construction near the holy city of Qom. Exposure of the site deprived Iran of its best chance of covertly producing the highly enriched uranium needed to make fuel for nuclear weapons. As well, international nuclear inspectors report that at Iran's plant in Natanz, where thousands of centrifuges spin to enrich uranium for nuclear fuel, the number of the machines operating has dropped by 20 per cent since the northern summer, a decline that nuclear experts attribute to technical problems. Others, including some European officials, believe the problems may have been accentuated by a series of covert efforts by the West to undermine Iran's program, including sabotage on its imported equipment and infrastructure. These factors have led the Obama administration's policymakers to lengthen their estimate of how long it would take Iran to accomplish what nuclear experts call "covert breakout" -- the ability to secretly produce a workable weapon. "For now, the Iranians don't have a credible breakout option, and we don't think they will have one for at least 18 months, maybe two or three years," the paper quotes one senior administration official as saying. The administration has told allies that the longer time frame would allow the sanctions to have an effect before Iran could develop to the full its nuclear ability. The Australian
 Intelligence reports are buzzing that the Islamic Republic of Iran has attempted to smuggle $450 million worth of uranium from Kazakhstan. The 1,350 tons of purified uranium would be enough for Iran to continue its nuclear program, which many believe is geared towards producing a nuclear weapon. The report was drawn up by a member nation of the International Atomic Energy Agency and provided to the AP on condition that the country not be identified because of the confidential nature of the information. In Washington, State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said, “the transfer of any uranium yellowcake … to Iran would constitute a clear violation of UNSC sanctions.” We have yet to hear more about this, but if true, it would be a clear indication of several things.
One, Iran believes that it is low on uranium. Secondly, it is in clear violation of United Nations conditions on its nuclear program. Today is the deadline for Iran to stop enriching uranium, as set forth by the US government. What will their response be? World Threats
 WASHINGTON: The Obama administration is readying sanctions against elements of the Iranian government, including those involved in the deadly crackdown on Iranian protesters, marking a shift to a more aggressive US posture towards the Islamic republic, reports said yesterday. Ten months after US President Barack Obama set a year-end deadline for Iran to engage with world powers on its nuclear program, the government in Tehran has failed to respond. The Obama administration now wants to carefully target sanctions at the regime - both to avoid alienating the Iranian public and to keep the door ajar to a resolution of the struggle over Iran's nuclear program, US officials told The Washington Post. The aim of the sanctions would be to force the Tehran government to the negotiating table, rather than to punish it for either its apparent push to develop a nuclear weapon or its treatment of its people, the report said. "We have never been attracted to the idea of trying to get the whole world to cordon off their economy," a senior US official told the paper. "We have to be deft at this, because it matters how the Iranian people interpret their isolation - whether they fault the regime or are fooled into thinking we are to blame." Authorities also arrested the sister of Nobel peace laureate Shirin Ebadi as the embattled regime stepped up efforts to suppress a resurgent opposition yesterday. Unable to arrest Dr Ebadi - who regularly denounces the regime from exile in Europe - the regime sent four intelligence agents to seize her sister, Nooshin, a doctor, from her home. Mr Obama and British Foreign Secretary David Miliband signalled strong support for Iranian demonstrators. Mr Obama's comments were his strongest words of support yet for the protesters. Until now, the Obama administration, along with other Western powers, has kept criticism muted so as not to further complicate the nuclear talks. The biggest roadblock in the negotiations has been Tehran's refusal to agree to an International Atomic Energy Agency-brokered deal to ship much of Iran's uranium to Russia, where it would be further enriched and sent back for use in a medical-research reactor. After Iranian negotiators appeared to agree to the deal, Iranian officials baulked at signing, issuing a series of sometimes-contradictory demands for alterations. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki yesterday said his country was willing to produce and enrich the uranium needed for the medical reactor itself. Appearing to turn the tables on Western powers, he said it was Iran that was waiting for a response to its counterproposal to the IAEA-brokered proposal. The Australian
 Iran is close to clinching a deal to clandestinely import 1,350 tons of purified uranium ore from Kazakhstan, according to an intelligence report obtained by The Associated Press on Tuesday. Diplomats said the assessment was heightening international concern about Tehran's nuclear activities. Such a purified uranium ore deal would be significant because Tehran appears to be running out of the material, which it needs to feed its uranium enrichment program. The report was drawn up by a member nation of the International Atomic Energy agency and provided to the AP on condition of that the country not be identified because of the confidential nature of the information. Such imports are banned by the U.N. Security Council. In New York, Burkina Faso's U.N. Ambassador Michel Kafando, a co-chair of the Security Council's Iran sanctions committee, referred questions Tuesday about a potential deal between Iran and Kazakhstan to his sanctions adviser, Zongo Saidou. Saidou told the AP that, as far as he knew, none of the U.N.'s member nations have alerted the committee about any such allegations. "We don't have any official information yet regarding this kind of exchange between the two countries," Saidou said. "I don't have any information; I don't have any proof." A senior U.N. official said the agency was aware of the intelligence report's assessment but could not yet draw conclusions.
He demanded anonymity for discussing confidential information. A Western diplomat from a member of the IAEA's 35-nation board said the report was causing "concern" among countries that have seen it and generating "intelligence chatter." The diplomat also requested anonymity for discussing intelligence information. A two-page summary of the report obtained by the AP said deal could be completed within weeks.
It said Tehran was willing to pay $450 million, or close to 315 million euros, for the shipment. The price is high because of the secret nature of the deal and due to Iran's commitment to keep secret the elements supplying the material," said the summary. An official of the country that drew up the report said "elements" referred to state employees acting on their own without approval of the Kazakh government. After-hours calls put in to offices of Kazatomprom, the Kazak state uranium company, in Kazakhstan and Moscow, were not answered Tuesday. Iranian nuclear officials also did not pick up their telephones. Purified ore, or uranium oxide, is processed into a uranium gas, which is then spun and re-spun to varying degrees of enrichment. Low enriched uranium is used for nuclear fuel, and upper-end high enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. Iran is under three sets of U.N. Security Council sanctions for refusing to freeze its enrichment program and related activities that could be used to make nuclear weapons. Tehran denies such aspirations, saying it wants to enrich only to fuel an envisaged network of power reactors. FoxNews
 This went much smoother than I expected. The United Nations has voted in favor of placing sanctions on Eritrea as requested by Uganda. The assets of government officials involving in supporting al-Shabaab will be frozen and their travel outside the country is now banned. An arms embargo has been approved, and cargo traveling to and from Eritrea via the Red Sea can be inspected. The Chinese abstained from the vote and Libya voted against it. Hopefully, this lands Eritrea a place on the State Department’s list of State Sponsors of Terrorism.
If it doesn’t, then what standard does a country need to reach to get on the list? Directly supporting an Al-Qaeda affiliate cannot be tolerated under any circumstances, and if that isn’t viewed as deserving of harsh retaliation, then we aren’t taking this conflict seriously. World Threats
 I’ve always argued that oil was as a factor in the U.S. decision to invade Iraq–not THE only factor, but a factor. U.N. sanctions and then general instability prevented Iraq from reaching its full potential as an oil exporter. If Iraq became a democracy and increased oil output, it would strategically benefit the free world in great ways. Now, don’t misunderstand me. I don’t believe that the U.S. wanted oil companies to pillage Iraq.
At any rate, that didn’t happen. A Russian company, LukOil, won the rights to major oil fields–not exactly the result of an evil American campaign to steal Middle Eastern oil. That doesn’t change the strategic and economic benefits for the U.S., though: LUKoil, which won big at Iraq’s weekend oil auctions, expects a “revolution” in world oil markets when enough crude to add 20 percent to global supply starts to flow from the country’s supergiant fields. LUKoil shareholder Leonid Fedun said Monday that he expected a fivefold rise in Iraqi production to cap oil price growth, while also deterring investors from pursuing more difficult and costly projects. “A top manager at a leading Western firm said the modern history of the oil business will be split into the pre-Iraq and post-Iraq periods. I agree,” Fedun said in an interview. Iraq has deals on the table to raise oil capacity to 12 million barrels per day from its current 2.5 million bpd, a level that would eclipse Russia and leave the country behind only Saudi Arabia. This isn’t just hubris from an excited company wanting investors.
The Iraqis are open about their desire to produce 12 million bpd in ten years. You can’t have too many pro-American sources of oil, and this reduces our reliance upon Saudi oil.
That means Saudi Arabia can be pressured and gives us some more room to breath over instability in the Kingdom and the possibility of attacks on their oil infrastructure.
The increased supply also means oil prices can come down unless Iraq works with other OPEC countries to fix prices. World Threats
 IRAN has dismissed as a "scenario'' hatched by Western powers a report alleging that it is working on a key component of a nuclear bomb. "Some countries are angry that our people defend their nuclear rights,'' foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said today. When Western powers "want to pressure us they craft such scenarios which is unacceptable,'' he said. He was reacting to a report in the British newspaper The Times which said yesterday it had obtained notes describing a four-year plan by Iran to test a neutron initiator, the component of a nuclear bomb which triggers an explosion. The Times claimed that foreign intelligence agencies dated the documents to early 2007 - four years after Tehran was thought to have suspended its weapons program. It said the documents detailed a plan to test whether the device works - without leaving traces of uranium that the outside world could detect. Its uranium enrichment work is at the centre of fears about the program as the process which makes nuclear fuel can also be used to make the fissile core of an atom bomb. Iran is under three sets of UN sanctions for its refusal to suspend enrichment and risks a further round after rejecting a UN-brokered deal to send its low enriched uranium abroad to be further refined into fuel for a research reactor. The Australian
 WE are now moving into the endgame of Iran's decade-long drive to acquire the hardware and technology to build a nuclear bomb. What happens next could determine whether Iran becomes a nuclear-armed state, whether the region is plunged into another war, or whether Iran and the Arab world embark on a nuclear arms race. Yesterday's announcement showed that President Ahmadinejad has once again calculated that attack is the best form of defence. After being censured by the International Atomic Energy Agency last week, which referred Tehran to the UN Security Council, the Iranians have decided to call the bluff of the international community.
They believe that the world is unwilling or unable to take serious steps to prevent it from building its own uranium enrichment industry. Enriched uranium can be used as nuclear fuel or, in its highly enriched form, provide the fissile material to build an atomic warhead. Although regarded as a pariah in the West - particularly after the contested presidential election results this summer - Mr Ahmadinejad is still welcome in many capitals around the world, most recently Brasilia and Caracas. The Iranian strategy is clear: defy the West, woo Moscow and Beijing, and build up support in the developing world. Iran has calculated that the Obama administration, which offered this year to end three decades of hostility, is distracted by its domestic problems and the war in Afghanistan. Europe still fails to speak with one voice on this matter. As for the rest of the world, an increasing number of states believe that Iran will now build the bomb and is prepared to live with this fact. However, it would be a huge miscalculation to believe that the problems will stop there. Israel regards the issue as an existential threat and has warned that it is prepared to launch a pre-emptive strike to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities - even if this means starting a new war in the Middle East. The Arab states are caught in the middle. Many have decided that their best option is to start their own nuclear programs, as Egypt and the Gulf states are already doing. The crisis is likely to feed into the increasing tensions in the region between Sunni and Shia Muslims, who are already at odds in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and the Gulf states. Further hostilities could break out with Iran, the main Shia power in the region, as it supports its brethren against the Arab states.The only move that could stop an escalation would be concerted action by the Security Council. Iran's economy remains vulnerable to outside pressure; this is where American, British and other Western diplomats will hope to squeeze Tehran into backing down. The Australian
 If the West was hoping to use sanctions targeting Iran’s reliance upon imported petroleum products, they better move quickly. China and Iran have signed a $6.5 billion deal where Sinopec will build refineries in Iran. If the regime truly understands how such sanctions threaten their rule, I expect them to do everything they can to delay such sanctions, and expedite the construction of more refineries. This is a major vulnerability for the Iranians, virtually guaranteeing the collapse of the regime over the long-term unless something was done.
Maximum pressure needs to be exerted upon any company even thinking about making such deals with the Islamic Republic of Iran. World Threats
 BERLIN -- Mohamed ElBaradei, the departing chief of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog agency, said Iran's continued refusal to accept tighter scrutiny of its nuclear activities would likely force the international community to impose new sanctions. Though he described sanctions as a "grievous violation of human rights" that "affect the weak" and "do not solve problems," Mr. ElBaradei said Iran's continued intransigence regarding its nuclear program would likely lead world powers to increase their pressure on Iran. "The ball is in Iran's court," Mr. ElBaradei said in a brief interview after delivering a speech on his 12-year tenure as the International Atomic Energy Agency's Director General. Mr. ElBaradei, who is set to retire from the agency at the end of November, said he still hoped Iran's leadership would accept a plan to address concerns about its nuclear activities but acknowledged that it was "a fleeting opportunity." He urged the international community to continue to engage with Iran, saying that "small steps and negotiations" are necessary to achieve results. "We can threaten to use force, but this is a bridge to nowhere," Mr. ElBaradei said. Diplomats familiar with the talks say Western powers will wait until the end of the year for Tehran to accept a deal brokered with Iran this fall that would require the country to ship some of its uranium stockpile abroad for reprocessing into fuel for a medical-research reactor. Mr. ElBaradei's remarks came as top officials from the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council -- the U.S., U.K., France, Russia and China -- plus Germany, met in Brussels to discuss the standoff with Iran. The group issued a statement expressing disappointment that Iran had failed to respond to proposals aimed at calming worries about its nuclear ambitions. They urged Iran "to engage seriously with us in dialogue and negotiations." The six said they viewed Iran's failure to notify the IAEA about the existence of an underground uranium enrichment facility near the holy city of Qom as a breach of Iran's safeguards agreement with the agency and "in defiance of several UN resolutions." The officials said they would meet again soon to decide about next steps. International criticism of Iran's nuclear program escalated in September after the existence of the Qom facility came to light. President Obama has said the facility appears to be designed to produce fuel for a secret military program. Mr. Obama has called for a two-track policy of negotiations backed by the possibility of sanctions, should the talks fail to lead to an agreement that would restore confidence in the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program. At the U.N. Friday, Iran drew criticism for how it handled the aftermath of the country's disputed presidential election. The General Assembly's human-rights committee passed a resolution condemning Tehran's violent response to protests against the results of the June balloting as "serious ongoing and recurring human-rights violations." Mohammad Khazaee, Iran's ambassador to the U.N., called the Canadian-sponsored resolution "politically charged and motivated." WSJ
 One month after the U.S. launched a great diplomatic experiment by talking directly with Iran, the pressure of the effort is opening up some stress fractures. Some small fractures are showing up in the wall of solidarity the U.S. and its partners have tried to show in confronting Iran over its nuclear program -- specifically over how long to give diplomacy a chance before turning to new economic sanctions. A month after the U.S. began direct diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear program, the effort appears to have opened fissures within the Iranian regime. WSJ's Executive Washington Editor Jerry Seib explains. But the more meaningful stress fractures are showing up within Iran itself. There, the unwillingness to follow through on a nuclear deal the country's own negotiators worked out -- or even to offer a straight explanation of why Iran isn't following through -- has laid bare serious fissures within the country's ruling establishment. If that continues to be the case, the U.S. and its partners will be heading in coming weeks toward a fundamental question: Are these splits within Iran more likely to be widened by the pressures generated through continued diplomacy, or by the pressures generated by tough new economic sanctions? That's the picture that emerges from conversations in recent days with both American and European officials familiar with the diplomatic engagement with Iran. None pretend to have perfect knowledge of what is happening within the Byzantine world of Iranian decision-making, which has been made all the more complicated by the divisions opened up amid protests over what is widely seen as a rigged presidential election there during the summer. But the bizarre back and forth from Iran in the aftermath of a nuclear negotiating session in Geneva on Oct. 1 has only confirmed the sense that the regime, always thought to be split by factionalism, is now only more so. "I think what we are seeing here is everything we know about Iranian decision-making" taking hold, says Volker Perthes, director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs and an expert on Iran. The subject on which Iran is incapable of rendering a coherent decision is the deal that was struck -- or seemingly struck -- at that meeting in Geneva. Under that agreement, Iran would ship to Russia and France a large proportion of the low-enriched uranium it has managed to produce, so that the uranium could be refined into fuel for a Tehran research reactor and sent back to Iran. The beauty of the deal for the U.S. and its negotiating partners -- the other members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany -- was that it would take a majority of the Iranian raw material that eventually could be further enriched into nuclear-bomb fuel and allow the international community to turn it into something else, under close supervision. But since Iran's own negotiators seemed to agree to that arrangement, their leaders back in Tehran have pedaled backward, and then sideways, and then in circles, never embracing the deal but never exactly rejecting it either. Read more here,,,, Source: WSJ
 The US has said it will renew tough economic sanctions against Sudan soon, but also promised broad engagement with Khartoum in an effort to end the "ongoing dire human consequences of genocide" in Darfur. Barack Obama, the US president, said that if the government of Sudan acted to improve the situation on the ground, there would be "incentives". But if Sudan did not act, "then there will be increased pressure imposed by the US and the international community". The UN estimates that as many as 300,000 people have died and more than two million have been driven from their homes in Darfur since 2003, when mostly non-Arab fighters took up arms against the Khartoum government. Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, said genocide was taking place in the region and that Washington's focus would be on protecting civilians, helping displaced persons and ensuring that fighters were disarmed. In his statement on Monday, Obama said: "Sudan is now poised to fall further into chaos if swift action is not taken. "First, we must seek a definitive end to conflict, gross human-rights abuses and genocide in Darfur. "Second, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the North and South in Sudan must be implemented to create the possibility of long-term peace." Clinton said the new Obama policy toward Sudan would include "a menu of incentives and disincentives" but refused to specify what they might be. Read more here,,,, Source: Al Jazeera (English)
 THE US House of Representatives has sent a message to Iran that the pursuit of nuclear capability will not go unpunished, approving legislation that allows state and local governments to curtail investments in corporations that do business in Iran's energy sector. The legislation passed yesterday after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton downplayed differences with Moscow over tougher moves against Iran. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin highlighted the contrasts, saying it was "premature" to threaten sanctions against Tehran. The new legislation protects from shareholder lawsuits those investment managers who divest funds from companies that are involved in Iran's energy sector or have provided equipment for the transport of oil or liquefied natural gas from Iran. The bill - which passed the House 414-6 and now goes to the Senate - did not impose new sanctions, said its author, financial services committee chairman Barney Frank, a Democrat. "What it does is to make it very clear that Americans who are deeply concerned about the prospect of Iranian nuclear power, and other aspects of Iranian governance, that they are able to act on those (concerns)," Mr Frank said. "Several international firms continue to subsidise Iran's nuclear ambitions by investing billions of dollars in the regime's energy sector," said Republican Mark Kirk. "This legislation gives a strong 'go' signal to state and local leaders around America to get out of Iran." Calls for tougher sanctions intensified after it was revealed that Tehran was operating a previously undisclosed uranium-enrichment facility near the holy city of Qom. The Obama administration said it hoped to craft an international consensus on new multilateral sanctions. But Mr Putin said yesterday that talking about sanctions against Iran could disrupt negotiations with Tehran regarding its nuclear program. At the end of a two-day visit to Russia where Iran policy topped the agenda, Mrs Clinton said the Kremlin agreed with the US that tougher sanctions could be inevitable if Iran failed to allay the nuclear concerns. She said she was encouraged after a meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who first suggested last month that Russia might abandon its traditional opposition to sanctions if Iran failed to co-operate. But Russian officials have sent mixed signals on the subject since then, leading analysts to speculate over differences within the leadership. Mr Putin is widely viewed as the more powerful of the pair of top leaders and more sceptical about US intentions. Asked about possible differences with Mr Medvedev on Iran, Mr Putin said yesterday: "Our President determines foreign policy. If Dmitry Anatolievich (Medvedev) said (sanctions are) inevitable, they're inevitable. But if you look closely at all his statements and the context he made them in, you'll be convinced that there's no steel-and-concrete determination towards sanctions." Mr Putin was speaking while on a visit to Beijing, at the end of a summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, a group including Russia and China that has sought to counter Western domination of the international system. Russia and China have frequently opposed tighter sanctions on Iran in the UN Security Council, where they hold vetoes. Mr Putin told Chinese media the co-operation between the two countries "restrains some of our more hot-headed colleagues". He failed to identify whom he was referring to. Mrs Clinton, who did not meet Mr Putin on her Russian visit, said: "I'm very pleased about how supportive the Russians have been in what has become a united international effort." In an interview with ABC's Good Morning America, she added: "I believe if sanctions become necessary we will have support from Russia." Source: The Australian
 MOSCOW U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said after talks with Russia's foreign minister on Tuesday that neither country is seeking to impose sanctions against Iran under the current circumstances. Clinton said sanctions over Iran’s controversial uranium enrichment program would be premature, and that Russia was being “extremely cooperative in the work we have done together” on the issue. Lavrov said Russia is “in principle very reserved on sanctions, as they rarely produce results.” He said sanctions should only be used when all diplomatic means have been exhausted, and that “in the situation with Iran, this is far from the case.” Lavrov also said the U.S. and Russia had identical positions on the issue. “We are not asking anything of each other on Iran, because it would be ridiculous to make requests on an issue where our positions coincide,” he said. However, Clinton said that sanctions over North Korea's nuclear program would remain in place. "We have absolutely no intention of relaxing or offering to relax North Korean sanctions at this point whatsoever," she said. Clinton will later meet with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Before her arrival in Russia as part of a European tour, Clinton had visited Switzerland, the U.K., and Ireland. Source: RIA Novosti
 Debka is reporting here that the Russians have suspended shipments of the S-300 surface-to-air missile systems to Iran. The ostensible reason for this is that they are attempting to sell the S-400 to the Saudis. According to our Moscow sources, the Russians froze the transfers of anti-missile, anti-air missiles to Iran in the expectation of Saudi Arabia following through on negotiations for the purchase of the latest word in Russian anti-missile hardware, the S-400, which is more advanced than the S-300 system now withheld from Iran.
It has never been sold to a foreign government and even the Russian army has only two brigades armed with S-400 batteries. The Saudis insisted on making the transaction contingent on Moscow withholding the S-300 and Tor-M1 from Iran. Analysis. One would have to question what the Saudis are doing here. If they want a superior SAM system what is wrong with the Patriot PAC-3 system which also has a short range anti-missile capability? This could be a Saudi ploy to hold off deliveries of the S-300 and Tor-M-1systems to Iran and thereby keep the Iranians from having an air defense system that would present an attacker with unacceptable losses.
That is a distinct possibility given the current Israeli rhetoric about attacking Iran.
Ephraim Sneh is predicting an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites by Christmas if effective sanctions are not put in place by the United Nations. While Sneh is out of government at the moment, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that he was “encouraged” to make such a statement The Saudis are good negotiators. They can keep this thing tied up for a few months at the very least. That would be enough time for the Israelis to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities before the Iranians had possession of an effective counter to the IAF. There is also some outside information that I believe applies here.
The Turks have refused to allow the Israelis to play in the forthcoming air defense exercises in Turkey.
As a result, the other major players have pulled out. With Turkey becoming at least mildly hostile to Israel, that probably eliminates any possibility of Israel using Turkish airspace for an attack on Iran.
Iraq is probably closed to them without United States approval of an attack on Iran. That leaves Saudi airspace as the only possibly non-hostile route to Iran. In addition, the Saudis can monitor a whole lot of volume with their AWACS. They will know almost instantly when any raid of any size takes off from the Negev.
The Saudis can either publicize that fact to the World or provide battle management assistance. Right now I’m voting for battle management assistance. I have personal experience working with the AWACS over Germany. These folks can see a very long way from 30,000 feet. The Iranians just managed to destroy their IL-76 Candid AWACS in a mid-air with an F-5E in a flyby over Tehran. Source: World Threats
 US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton departed for Europe late Friday on a five day trip in which Iran, Afghanistan and arms control are expected to be subjects of discussion.
The trip will take her to Switzerland, Britain, Ireland and Russia. During her visit to Moscow, Clinton plans to press for a strong commitment from Russia for tough new sanctions against Iran. US officials said Iran will be at or near the top of Clinton's agenda when she meets Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Tuesday. Russia and China have long balked at imposing new sanctions on Iran if it fails to come clean about its suspect nuclear program, but Medvedev hinted the Russian position might be shifting after Teheran disclosed a previously secret uranium enrichment site near the holy city of Qom. But US officials believe it will be a hard sell to convince the Russians on fresh penalties since Iran agreed to allow UN inspectors to visit the Qom site and has agreed, in principle, to send most of its low-enriched uranium to Russia for reprocessing. Iran agreed to allow inspections of the Qom site following talks last week between Iran's chief nuclear negotiator and diplomats from the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany. The Iranians were given time to decide whether to accept a package of incentives in exchange for Iran's compliance with international demands to suspend its uranium enrichment or face new sanctions. The Obama administration is anxious not to let up on the pressure and Clinton will be looking for Russian expressions of support for sanctions and other penalties should Iran continue to refuse by the end of the year, the officials said. "Iran has not bought an indefinite delay and we want them to know that," said one official, who like the others spoke on condition of anonymity to preview Clinton's talks. Read more here,,,, Source: JPost
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The United Nations security council has added the Yemen-based Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to its list of outlawed organisations.
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