By Amir Taheri
President Obama's most significant decision in reaching out to Iran is to seek direct contact with Ali Khamenei, the cleric who holds the position of "supreme guide."
Obama's predecessors always tried to circumvent the "supreme guide" by establishing contact with other power brokers in Tehran
.
Yet Obama's choice may appear judicious at first glance: In the Khomeinist system, real power rests with the "supreme guide." But dealing directly with Khamenei may prove problematic for two reasons.
The first is that relations with the United States are the key issue in Iran's domestic politics. Rival factions know that whoever achieves normalization would have an edge against others.
Khamenei, however, stands above factions -- and so does not feel the same urgency, does not have the same incentive to improve relations. He may adopt a harder line to highlight his credentials as the man who humbled the "Great Satan."
Also, it would be harder for Khamenei to offer the painful concessions without which no US president, not even the sympathetic Obama, could declare the Iranian regime a friend. Matters are complicated further by what looks like a tide of anger against Khamenei, whose pictures were burned by protesting students in Tehran the other day. Read more ...
President Obama's most significant decision in reaching out to Iran is to seek direct contact with Ali Khamenei, the cleric who holds the position of "supreme guide."
Obama's predecessors always tried to circumvent the "supreme guide" by establishing contact with other power brokers in Tehran
.
Yet Obama's choice may appear judicious at first glance: In the Khomeinist system, real power rests with the "supreme guide." But dealing directly with Khamenei may prove problematic for two reasons.
The first is that relations with the United States are the key issue in Iran's domestic politics. Rival factions know that whoever achieves normalization would have an edge against others.
Khamenei, however, stands above factions -- and so does not feel the same urgency, does not have the same incentive to improve relations. He may adopt a harder line to highlight his credentials as the man who humbled the "Great Satan."
Also, it would be harder for Khamenei to offer the painful concessions without which no US president, not even the sympathetic Obama, could declare the Iranian regime a friend. Matters are complicated further by what looks like a tide of anger against Khamenei, whose pictures were burned by protesting students in Tehran the other day. Read more ...
Source: FSM
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