U.S. Iran Policy: Better Late Than Never But Too Little Too Late
By Barry Rubin
There are more signs that the Obama administration is switching gears on its Middle East policy. The recent visit of several U.S. officials to Israel did not bring any major friction over the construction on settlements issue which is probably far deader than people think.
There are two factors involved in bringing about this new phase:
First, it is dawning on the administration that its Middle East policy isn’t working so well. The phrase “no success in six months” is being heard. That obviously isn’t enough time to solve the world’s problems but to fail to have a single positive development anywhere in the globe--given the high expectations generated by this administration and its over-optimism--is humiliating. And as they look ahead they don’t see any successes on the horizon.
Second, the administration has to gear up for its sanctions-building plan on Iran. The leaks say that the basic timetable is clear. In August and September, the United States will try to mobilize international support (Europe, Russia, and China) for increasing sanctions. If Iran hasn’t changed course by the end of September—and it won’t—these sanctions will be put into effect.
What’s on the list? Cutting exports of gasoline and other ready-to-use petroleum products—something Congress is already passing--and no insurance for companies trading with Iran are highest on the list. There might also be boycotts of companies trading or investing with Iran.
All of this would be a step forward, but of course there are numerous problems:
-What will the Europeans support and implement? Probably less than the United States wants. While Obama has done everything possible to please the Europeans—and they have declared their love for him—getting them to act is something else.
-What will the Russians and Chinese back? Clearly, they will only go for even less impressive sanctions at best.
-How will Iran react? By ignoring the sanctions and trying to go around them. They will not find China and Russia helpful in that pursuit. As for Russia, Obama is viewed there with actual contempt.Presumably, the administration will not get tough with those countries no matter what they do, or don’t do.
-By making the main theme of its foreign policy, “partnership” rather than unilateralism, the administration has tied its own hands so that the United States cannot get too far out ahead of its allies. And it’s also too little too late, not because Iran is so much closer to getting the nuclear weapons and long-range missiles but because the Tehran regime has made up its mind. The time to do this was before the Iranian election, not after—as the Obama administration mistakenly chose.
Read all here: http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/2009/07/us-iran-policy-better-late-than-never.html
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