MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia will join any consensus on more sanctions against Iran, a senior Russian diplomatic source said on Tuesday after Tehran declared it would expand nuclear activity in defiance of a U.N. rebuke.
It was a thinly veiled Russian warning to Iran of waning patience with its failure to allay fears it aims to develop atom bombs in secret, and hinted that Iran could no longer rely on Russia to stop tougher world action against it.
“If there is a consensus on Iran sanctions, we will not stand aside,” said the Russian diplomatic source, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation..
Analysis. I wouldn’t get my hopes up anytime soon. The Russians excel at chess and they are making a gambit here. They want to know what the West will give them in return for meaningful sanctions. They leave themselves an out with the “consensus” statement that usually means unanimity. If the People’s Republic of China doesn’t go along there is no unanimity and no reason for Russia to go along. SINOPEC has just signed some rather large development contracts with Iran. I doubt the Russians are interested in screwing the PRC at the moment.
One of Russia’s current goals is to control all of the POL exiting the ‘Stans and going to the nations of the former Soviet Union and western Europe. Right now Georgia and Ukraine are the two primary areas of contention.
Then again, the Russians are willing to hold up Iran on finishing Bushehr and delivering the S-300 systems. The Bushehr reactor is of no consequence as a light water power reactor.
It won’t make but very little plutonium. It is a red herring. The S-300 system is an entirely different matter. Iran is wide open to aerial attack and everybody knows it. That is why Iran has gone to the great expense of burying everything of significance to its atomic program where it could and creating lots of dummy launch silos for its missiles. These tactics may stifle an Israeli attack but won’t mean a lot if the US gets serious.
Now for another ring around the maypole.