November fourth, the Day of Students that was also the day in 1979 when the American Embassy was stormed and the hostages taken, is slated to become a day of protest against the mullahs just like the Qods Day protests. The date and the slogan “the day to cry death to Khamenei” are appearing as graffiti on the walls of buildings all over the country.
Student of Azad University of Broojerd have removed and destroyed the pictures of Ali Khamenei on the walls of their university buildings. New ones are destroyed as soon as the are put up.
Mullah Noormofidi, Khamenei’s representative in Golestan Province called the revolution fire under ashes. He said, “I don’t agree with our status and with this fire of uprising. I believe that this fire must be extinguished and not turn to the fire under the ashes.”
Senior mullahs are already preaching against anti-mullah demonstrations on November fourth.
Mullah Janati, the secretary of the Guidance Council (not sure if the source means Expediency Council, Assembly of Experts or the Guardian Council) warned in Tehran’s Friday Prayers, “November Fourth is the day of struggle against the universal despotism (the United States). Some have plans for this day but they must know that they will be defeated. If Judiciary and Intelligence Services act soft this would be treason…. You cannot act soft with those who have acted as our worst enemies. The problem is very deep and cannot be ignored…. The recent events were not about gaining power and the election.
The overthrow of the regime was the goal of some people.” Janati also mentioned the fear in other countries of the overthrow of the clerical regime. “Seyyed Hassan Nasrollah (the leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah) said that during the recent events in Iran everybody called him and wanted to know what has happened in Iran. Everybody was horrified.”
To cheer up the spirit of the regime’s supporters he added, “those who defy must not be hopeful, Imam’s path and Islamic Republic is alive. (Emphasis mine. See Analysis.)
Ayatollah Montazeri, the leading Shiite scholar in Iran, has declared nuclear weapons banned. “If weapons are not used against military men attacking and if they take innocent people as victims they are not allowed both logically and according to canon law.”
Mohammadreza Moghise, the head of the Committee of Pursuing the Affairs of the Detainees and Harmed of the Recent Events, was arrested in a raid at his home.
Nightly protest of the regime continue in Tehran with people chanting “Allah O Akbar” and “Death to the Dictator”.
Large numbers of students at Kermanshah and Babol are being suspended and fined for anti-government activities.
Fariba Pajooh, the official translator for for Spanish newspaper Mondo was arrested in Tehran and sent to Evin Prison. She is accused of propagating against the regime.
The graffiti campaign against the theocratic regime continues all across Tehran.
Analysis. I seldom do analyses of the information about events in Iran. However, in light of the previous posts concerning the health of Ali Khamenei, some analysis is required.
There is no doubt that the regime is in serious trouble. The main revolutionaries, the students of Iran, may well not be able to effect their revolution without building a base of support throughout the country in segments of society that have so far not taken an active part in the revolution.
The death of Ali Khamenei may change that. If the theocracy is paralyzed even for a short time by the inability of the Assembly of Experts to elect a new Supreme Guide who can inspire the support of the clerical establishment and the people, all sorts of things might happen.
Hence rumors of clandestine meetings of the senior members of the theocracy and the civil government as outline in Ryan’s previous posts. The theocracy obviously expects chaos as they have not revealed the true state of Khamenei’s health.
The theocracy might also be anticipating problems with its enforcement arms: the Revolutionary Guards Corps (RGC) and the Basij.
Who will these people accept as their leader in place of Khamenei? Probably not Rafsanjani or Montazeri or any of the other relatively sane mullahs. What will happen to all their perks under a different Ayatollah? Will the RGC actually be the king maker as the Roman Praetorian Guard was?
What difference does all this esoteric musing about succession to the Supreme Guide mean to us? It will point the direction that Iran will take towards the rest of the World.
Janati’s comments above point to where the major problem lies in Iran. It is with those who wish to hasten the appearance of the Hidden Imam. Since this Imam will supposedly appear from a well in Iraq, we might take this as an indication of future Iranian policy depending on who is elected Supreme Guide.
Source: World Threats