Friday, November 13, 2009

Intelligence Summit

Debka is reporting here about a meeting between the senior intelligence officers of the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the Mossad, Egyptian Intelligence and hosted by the Jordanians.

This is a rather extraordinary gathering to say the least.

Our sources add that the unpublicized get-together took place just a few days before Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and US president Barak Obama conversed at the White House Monday, Nov. 9.

They therefore had its conclusions before them when they talked. Two days later, Netanyahu passed input from the intelligence summit to French president Nicolas Sarkozy when he stopped over in Paris.

It was the first time Israel had taken part in a secret meeting of Middle East intelligence chiefs whose purpose was to coordinate their steps. (Emphasis mine.)

Please read the entire article.

Analysis. This is not a very good sign.

I will freely admit that Debka cries wolf a lot. Given the backgrounds of the people who are Debka, that is totally understandable. I am the same way because my background besides being an F-4 Weapons Systems Officer and a few other things is plans and intelligence.

It is our job to present our best analysis of enemy capabilities and intentions to the commander. By design we present the worst case scenario.

I consider it to be very telling that the countries who form the “Western Front” against Iranian expansion by proxy have finally gotten together at least at the senior intelligence level.

Were the senior planners there also? I don’t know and we probably never will. But I would strongly suspect that the DIA contingent included at least one planner.

I cannot say for sure that these five countries plus Saudi Arabia are ready to sit together and create defensive plans for the time when the Syrians and Hezbollah go south. They are probably close.

The Saudis are a key country. They are exposed to Iran on both sides. They have Jordan to protect them on the north. But they are vulnerable in the south as the Yemeni insurgency shows.

Their eastern front is wide open from the Persian Gulf as are the fronts of the rest of the GCC countries. The Saudis also have another problem. They are substantially more than pissed at the machinations of Shiite Iran. They are only a little less than apoplectic about having a Shiite Iraq. Note the earlier post regarding Iraq’s attempt to cause the UN to investigate terrorists coming from both Syria and Saudi Arabia.

The other big key that the Saudis have is their airspace. With the recent turn of Turkey to the Dark Side that route to Iran is closed as is presumably the Iraq route. That leaves the Saudi route. In any case, the Saudi AWACS can watch every flight in the area for a long distance. They would know immediately if a large formation of Israeli aircraft took off and headed east.

As the intelligence meeting probably figured out, any viable attack on Iran must be synergistic.

Each country, including the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Countries has particular capabilities that by themselves provide some minimum measure of defense. Together they complement each other and make a credible attack and defense force at least from the air. The ground forces would require reinforcement from Egypt to present a credible invasion force aimed at Syria.

I expect that meetings such as these will continue on a regular basis and will soon openly include planners and senior commanders. Then it gets serious.

Source: World Threats

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