Correspondents in Tehran | July 22
IRAN'S election dispute has moved beyond mass street protests to a new phase: a fight for power within the ruling religious establishment itself, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard emerging as the driving force behind efforts to crush the opposition movement.
The 125,000-strong guard, formed following the Islamic Revolution of 1979 in an effort to consolidate several paramilitary forces into a single militia loyal to the regime, is seen at the vanguard of the post-election drive to silence dissenting views.
The Revolutionary Guard secures the regime and provides training support to terrorist groups throughout the region, and its role since the disputed June 12 presidential election has led political analysts to describe the poll as a military coup.
Rasool Nafisi, an expert in Iranian affairs and a co-author of an exhaustive study of the Guard for the Rand Corporation, told The New York Times yesterday: "It is not a theocracy any more. It is a regular military security government with a facade of a Shi'ite clerical system."
The comments came as the conflict escalated with the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, backed by hardline clerics and the Revolutionary Guard, issuing a warning to the opposition in general and powerful cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in particular.
"The elite should be watchful, since they have been faced with a big test. Failing the test will cause their collapse," Ayatollah Khamenei said in a speech marking a religious holiday. "Anybody who drives the society toward insecurity and disorder is a hated person in the view of the Iranian nation, whoever he is."
The opposition was emboldened when Mr Rafsanjani stepped into the fray with a Friday prayer sermon that sharply criticised the leadership's handling of the crisis. He has reignited the opposition, emerging as its leading patron.
"You are facing something new: an awakened nation, a nation that has been born again and is here to defend its achievements," opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi said in comments this week that appeared pointed directly at Ayatollah Khamenei, in a tone rarely used towards the Supreme Leader.
The defeated election candidate derided the claim by Ayatollah Khamenei and hardline clerics that the protest movement was a tool of foreign enemies.
"Who believes that (protesters) would conspire with foreigners and sell the interests of their own country?" he said. "Isn't this an insult to our nation?"
Analysts predicted Mr Rafsanjani's sermon could open the door to more anti-government comments from influential clerics. Mr Rafsanjani is a top cleric who helped found the Islamic republic and enjoys his own political base. The new assertiveness by leading opposition-minded clerics could reinvigorate a dwindling street movement, amid a government crackdown.
The clerical split has so far been limited to a war of words. But as the rhetoric ratchets up, the stakes for both sides do, too.
Ayatollah Khamenei and his clerics appear to be trying to reassert their once unquestionable authority. They also seem to be trying to avoid, for now, any drastic measure that could spark further violent protests on the streets, or a rebellion behind the scenes amid senior clerics.
Source: The Australian
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