By John Ellis
How much damage did Barak Obama do to the incipient Iranian revolution—and by extension, to peace in the Middle East and to the U.S. national interest—when he failed to support the Iranian protesters, and instead poured cold water on Moussavi as an alternative to Ahmadinejad? His defenders say, not much, for two reasons. First, sending troops or guns was out of the question, and without that mere words were not going to make much of a difference. And second, Obama later corrected himself, and issued a statement which (though he denied it) changed his position to one of support. They could not be more wrong on both counts. The damage Obama did was enormous, and his self-correction did nothing whatever to repair that damage.
In the last thirty years we have seen many revolutions around the world in which people took to the streets in large numbers and were faced there by a much smaller number who were heavily armed. What we have learned from these situations it is that one factor matters more than any other: confidence. For the police and security forces, there is no safe course of action. It’s dangerous to follow orders and shoot unarmed people, and it’s dangerous not to follow orders and not shoot. The one might get them tried for murder if the revolution succeeds, and the other might get them executed for mutiny. And so they try desperately to see which way the wind is blowing. If the police become confident that the revolution is failing, they’ll obey orders. If on the other hand they believe that it is succeeding, they’ll join the crowds. Every single one of them is trying to discern the tipping point, the moment when it becomes clear which way things are going, and until then they try to avoid committing themselves. An added factor in this game of confidence is that the people with the guns probably have relatives and close friends among the protesters. Even if they don’t get into trouble with the authorities (whether the old or the new) they also have to worry both about the safety of those dear to them, and how their own actions will be judged at home. Read more ...
How much damage did Barak Obama do to the incipient Iranian revolution—and by extension, to peace in the Middle East and to the U.S. national interest—when he failed to support the Iranian protesters, and instead poured cold water on Moussavi as an alternative to Ahmadinejad? His defenders say, not much, for two reasons. First, sending troops or guns was out of the question, and without that mere words were not going to make much of a difference. And second, Obama later corrected himself, and issued a statement which (though he denied it) changed his position to one of support. They could not be more wrong on both counts. The damage Obama did was enormous, and his self-correction did nothing whatever to repair that damage.
In the last thirty years we have seen many revolutions around the world in which people took to the streets in large numbers and were faced there by a much smaller number who were heavily armed. What we have learned from these situations it is that one factor matters more than any other: confidence. For the police and security forces, there is no safe course of action. It’s dangerous to follow orders and shoot unarmed people, and it’s dangerous not to follow orders and not shoot. The one might get them tried for murder if the revolution succeeds, and the other might get them executed for mutiny. And so they try desperately to see which way the wind is blowing. If the police become confident that the revolution is failing, they’ll obey orders. If on the other hand they believe that it is succeeding, they’ll join the crowds. Every single one of them is trying to discern the tipping point, the moment when it becomes clear which way things are going, and until then they try to avoid committing themselves. An added factor in this game of confidence is that the people with the guns probably have relatives and close friends among the protesters. Even if they don’t get into trouble with the authorities (whether the old or the new) they also have to worry both about the safety of those dear to them, and how their own actions will be judged at home. Read more ...
Source: FPM
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